2008. Year one of AO – After Oil

By Kevin Klinkenberg The Kansas City Post I’m sitting outside on a beautiful night in Cheyenne, Wyoming, and here I am thinking about oil. The phrase – “get a life” comes to mind. But, it’s on my mind as I watch cars roar by on an overly-wide one way street in this sleepy downtown, sitting in an outdoor café that used to be a fast-food joint. My chair is nestled against a rail that separates me from the surface parking lot in front of the building. It’s an apt scene for thinking about the future of energy and our way of life. I think history will mark history will mark 2008 as year one of AO – After Oil. We are entering a new era that will impact our lives and our cities in ways just as profound as the automobile era did starting in the 20th century. As your grief counselor, let me just advise you that it’d be best for us all to quickly proceed through the 5 stages of grief, so that we can get on to more productive lives. Which stage are you in? Denial – “This isn’t really happening, it’s only a temporary blip” Anger – “It’s the greedy oil companies, Arabs, politicians (insert favorite enemy here)” Bargaining – “If we just all buy hybrid cars we’ll be fine!” Depression – “The economy is collapsing, our society is doomed!” Instead, we all should move on to Acceptance – the era of cheap oil is over, and with it the easy motoring lifestyle that we’ve all grown accustomed to (including me). Our lifestyles are going to be permanently altered by world events, so let’s go ahead and start changing so we can enjoy ourselves more quickly. Welcome to the Post-Petroleum Era. You may have heard the phrase “peak oil” before, or even read a book or two about it. Briefly, allow me to clarify what is going on, so we can move past the Denial stage. The world is not running out of oil tomorrow, or next year or 10 years from now. But what we are running out of is the cheap, easily accessible oil. On top of that, our ability to produce more globally is constrained – all projections by everyone in and outside the industry shows a flattening of worldwide production in the next few years. And if that weren’t enough, worldwide demand is increasing exponentially, thanks to burgeoning economies in places like China, India, Brazil, Russia and the Middle East. One quick example – India currently contains about 300 million people that are considered “middle class”, up from less than 100 million 15 years ago. That number is projected to double to 600 million by 2020 – a little over 10 years from now. Now, middle class in India is not the same as middle class in the US, but it does mean another population equal to the entire US who will be upgrading their lifestyles and vehicles. It might mean just a motorized scooter or bike, or a small car. But it’s a substantial increase in demand regardless. And the same thing is happening in China and the other places I noted above. Those who think the recent spike in oil prices are because of a falling US dollar, or in any way tied to the American economy are simply in that first phase of grief – Denial. So it’s in this context that we must understand the sharp rise in gasoline prices, and what the future holds for us. No amount of biofuels, electric cars or fuel-efficient gasoline engines will change the fundamental dilemma facing us and the world – it simply is going to get more and more expensive to drive our cars, to the point where many, if not most, middle class households will have to sharply curtail driving. In fact, many of us may simply not be able to afford personal motorized transportation at all. So what do we do? That’s the subject for the next column – stay tuned…